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#26 2020-02-26 01:55:01

MALsPa
Member
From: albuquerque
Registered: 2016-06-20
Posts: 189

Re: covid-19 virus

An article I was looking at earlier seems to explain the situation well: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch … ne/607000/

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#27 2020-02-26 02:19:48

johnraff
nullglob
From: Nagoya, Japan
Registered: 2015-09-09
Posts: 6,811
Website

Re: covid-19 virus

misko_2083 wrote:

Sometimes there are no symptoms at all.

Right, the problem is that it's a new virus and we don't really know enough about it yet. There does seem to be evidence that people are contagious before they have any symptoms, which of course would not be helpful.

Let's hope that early reports of existing antiviral drugs (HIV etc) being effective to some extent turn out to be true. Otherwise it's heads down till they come out with targetted drugs and vaccines.

Of course this prompted a wave of net searching - the "Spanish Flu" (no, not from Spain) killed more people than WW1! And the Black Death...

Just to put COVID19 in perspective.


...elevator in the Brain Hotel, broken down but just as well...
( a boring Japan blog (currently paused), idle Twitterings and GitStuff )

Introduction to the Bunsenlabs Lithium Desktop

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#28 2020-02-26 11:11:58

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

^Nice read, thanks MALsPa.


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#29 2020-02-26 12:33:05

misko_2083
Member
Registered: 2016-05-24
Posts: 342

Re: covid-19 virus

twoion wrote:
misko_2083 wrote:

Overuse of antibiotics in some countries can weaken the immune system.

Well then I'm safe wink I haven't taken antibiotica for over 20 years (which is 2/3rds of my life) (my mother had the right idea about using those unless really needed -- I'm still alive and very rarely seriously ill; never could understand all those people popping pills as soon as their nose starts running).

You'll be fine, no rakija for you big_smile
The medications usually treat the symptoms not the cause and have side effects.
The last I took a medicine was when I was bitten by a snake years ago.

iMBeCil wrote:

Hahahaha, padni mi na grudi big_smile ... only Balkan people would understand: rakija (Serbia, Croatia), the universal medecine big_smile big_smile

Although, sometimes I prefer 'pelinkovac':

Pelinkovac is a bitter liqueur based on wormwood (Croatian, Serbian and Slovenian: pelen or pelin), popular in Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, as well as in Slovenia, where it is known as pelinkovec or pelinovec. The alcohol content is 28–35% by volume. It has a very bitter taste, resembling that of Jägermeister.

Haha, Nokia's slogan is overrated. Rakija is connecting people.
Pelinkovac here and there.

Sun For Miles wrote:

@pelin and rakija buddies
Serbian institute for public health finally issued a public statement.

Hvala Sunce naše. big_smile
What do you use for medicine?

johnraff wrote:
misko_2083 wrote:

Sometimes there are no symptoms at all.

Right, the problem is that it's a new virus and we don't really know enough about it yet. There does seem to be evidence that people are contagious before they have any symptoms, which of course would not be helpful.

Let's hope that early reports of existing antiviral drugs (HIV etc) being effective to some extent turn out to be true. Otherwise it's heads down till they come out with targetted drugs and vaccines.

Of course this prompted a wave of net searching - the "Spanish Flu" (no, not from Spain) killed more people than WW1! And the Black Death...

Just to put COVID19 in perspective.

Time will tell.
Virus is an invisible enemy, it does not choose who to infect.
People have no reason to fear Chinese or Italians.
Someone even mentioned concentration camps here.
We Balkan people turned thread to jokes, because life is much better that way.


Што ни оштровиди ум сагледати не може - љубав превазилази.

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#30 2020-02-26 14:03:03

Sun For Miles
Member
Registered: 2017-04-12
Posts: 188

Re: covid-19 virus

misko_2083 wrote:

Hvala Sunce naše. big_smile
What do you use for medicine?

If my immune system gets on it's knees due to viral infection, I usually just get a good rest and burn resulting bacterial imbalance in my mouth and throat with some domestic rakija.

I'm with you guys on anti-antibiotics vagon. 12-13 years ago I took a therapy because a girl I was with had a bacterial imbalance (bacterial vaginosis) and it was repeateing due to stress - so I was just eliminating myself as a factor (had no symtoms of any kind, but at some point I tested positive on one of the bacterium). Yeah, great sex had a hidden cost sometimes. That was the last time I took antibiotics.


Señor Chang, why do you teach Spanish?

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#31 2020-02-26 14:17:05

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

There is a lot of chatter about this covid-19 virus being on par with the 1918/1919 spanish flu pandemic. Government where i am is considering something i didn't think they would consider, shutting down schools and cancelling large gatherings like football events, concerts etc.

Last edited by clusterF (2020-02-26 14:17:29)

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#32 2020-02-26 18:43:00

twoion
ほやほや
Registered: 2015-08-10
Posts: 2,780

Re: covid-19 virus

Meanwhile, today we finally switched from "it's just the flu, bro" to "begin of an epidemic", quoting the federal minister of public health

Minister of public health, Jens Spahn, anticipates the emergence of a Corona epidemic in Germany. The new cases of the virus which came to be known on Tuesday were of a new quality, the minister said at an interview in Berlin, which showed itself in that the chains of infection as well as possible contacts the person had were not longer traceable. He observes, "I'm becoming more and more conviced that the possibility of the epidemic sparing Germany is no longer realistic."

Yeah, no shit, sherlock, there has been strong evidence for weeks that this would be the case. Actionable evidence, in my opinion. Communication by the authorities has been a catastrophe. If this was a corporate corruption case people would have gotten fired for handling PR this badly.

One of the newly infected here spent 4 days running about the Cologne carnival festivities BTW, so there must be at least 10,000 carriers in that area alone. Looking at how I spent 3 hours last Sunday in a train with drunk Carnival twats from Cologne who were boasting how bad their colds were and how much Ibuprofen they had been popping in order to stay functional, I'm estimating my chances of being a vector pretty high by now.

This god damn topic is so tiring. I really would have liked to be able to focus on more productive things other than trying to stay healthy and not be contagious.


Per aspera ad astra.

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#33 2020-02-26 19:11:49

MALsPa
Member
From: albuquerque
Registered: 2016-06-20
Posts: 189

Re: covid-19 virus

Sector11 wrote:

I'm 70 - on the line!  If I go, I go.

The way global warming is coming on, I'm not sure I want to be here 10-20-30 years from now anyway.

A bug is just one way in an infinite number of ways of leaving this world and it has been since the beginning of time.

So what else is new?


Yeah, to me it's just another bullet to try to dodge before something takes me out in the end anyway.

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#34 2020-02-27 12:02:39

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

Some interesting tin foil hat stuff in regards to Dean Koontz book "The Eyes Of Darkeness"

Now i dont believe for a second that his book predicted anything, it was a fictional novel. It just so happens that maybe sometimes intelligent minds such as Dean Koontz have the ability to foresee the future? Ive also read that the 1981 book originally had the wuhan-400 virus as a russian made virus called gorki-400. Go figure....

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dean- … ronavirus/

Last edited by clusterF (2020-02-27 12:03:04)

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#35 2020-02-27 13:37:08

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

clusterF wrote:

It just so happens that maybe sometimes intelligent minds such as Dean Koontz have the ability to foresee the future?

roll
Again, everything has to be put into the perspective ... How many writers has written a virus catastrophic story? A lot. Most of them probably put the source of the virus in some part of the Earth. Simply because of the number of existing stories/novels, there is a fair chance one of them will coincide with the real life, at one point in the future.

Or: how many of the novels didn't happen in real life? How many of the 'predictions' of Dean Koontz's novels didn't made a real life prediction? Again, a lot.

Therefore, it is simply a coincidence. Nothing particularly intelligent about this (of course, the writer is certainly more intelligent novel-wise than myself, as I have written zero (un)successful novels smile ).

Opposite case: Albert Einstein, creator of the General Relativity, a famous person/physicist, considered and boosted (as in 'put up onto the pedestal') the most clever and important person in physics by wide audience (no, he wasn't!), firmly didn't believe in quantum physics (to be precise: didn't believe in its principles) all of his life. And he is not the only case.

The point: a person may be intelligent, or may be a complete idiot ... but it may coin a statement, and by sheer number of existing people and statements, one of them may turn out to be true.

Last edited by iMBeCil (2020-02-27 13:37:54)


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#36 2020-02-27 14:12:50

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

^ sometimes fiction becomes fact, bad players in the game of science fiction maybe?

Coincidence perhaps, prediction was never stated in the fictional novel nor implied.

I like to believe some of us in the human population have clairvoyance in one way or another. Ive experienced clairvoyance in the past, very powerful stuff.

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#37 2020-02-27 15:29:37

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

A funny story of mine: I drive a car. Either regularly from hoe home to place I work, and back (7 km); or several time a year from home to sea coast and back, via highway (300 km). And I always swear and hate the truck-god when I come to road tunnels with traffic in both directions: every single time a massive huge truck emerges from somewhere, get in front of me, and drives slowly, which in turns forces me to decrease speed far below limit. And it happens every single time, just before every damn tunnel. The truck-god must hate me really much, like a rain-god in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (actually: So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish) ...

Now, switching my brain on, what is actually going on: statistically, number of trucks emerging in front of me just before tunnel is small. However, my brain tend to forget this (good) occasions, and remembers only bad occasions. Hence, I feel I'm damned, while in reality, I'm not.

The very same is with clairvoyance (I had to look up the exact definition of this word, I hope I got it correct): you - or rather your brain - remembers clairvoyant cases, and discards majority of cases where your clairvoyance has been wrong. Hence your feeling that you are clairvoyant. In reality, you are not. It is the same with deja vu ...


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#38 2020-02-27 16:07:19

damo
....moderator....
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 5,982

Re: covid-19 virus

I'll just leave this here...

Richard P. Feynman wrote:

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”

Richard P. Feynman wrote:

“You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight... I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!”


Be Excellent to Each Other...
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FORUM RULES and posting guidelines «» Help page for forum post formatting
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#39 2020-02-27 18:44:26

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

smile  smile  smile


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#40 2020-02-27 19:45:13

Martin
Member
From: Stockholm, Sweden
Registered: 2015-10-01
Posts: 428
Website

Re: covid-19 virus

iMBeCil wrote:

^Nice read, thanks MALsPa.

+1

/Martin


"Problems worthy of attack
prove their worth by hitting back."
Piet Hein

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#41 2020-02-28 01:08:50

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

iMBeCil wrote:

A funny story of mine: I drive a car. Either regularly from hoe home to place I work, and back (7 km); or several time a year from home to sea coast and back, via highway (300 km). And I always swear and hate the truck-god when I come to road tunnels with traffic in both directions: every single time a massive huge truck emerges from somewhere, get in front of me, and drives slowly, which in turns forces me to decrease speed far below limit. And it happens every single time, just before every damn tunnel. The truck-god must hate me really much, like a rain-god in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (actually: So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish) ...

Now, switching my brain on, what is actually going on: statistically, number of trucks emerging in front of me just before tunnel is small. However, my brain tend to forget this (good) occasions, and remembers only bad occasions. Hence, I feel I'm damned, while in reality, I'm not.

The very same is with clairvoyance (I had to look up the exact definition of this word, I hope I got it correct): you - or rather your brain - remembers clairvoyant cases, and discards majority of cases where your clairvoyance has been wrong. Hence your feeling that you are clairvoyant. In reality, you are not. It is the same with deja vu ...

Well i suppose that could be an explanation whereby applying the theory of Occams Razor perhaps?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

A quote for Damo...
Ludwig Wittgenstein,
‘Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent.’

Edit: Just so im clear here, i dont claim to be right on everything i post. Im well aware of the fact i could be wrong on the internet and i welcome that, we all learn new things everyday, well atleast i hope we do.

Last edited by clusterF (2020-02-28 01:17:33)

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#42 2020-03-07 12:02:45

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

Thought i would update this thread with a very well written blog i cam across.

The Gathering Storm: Could Covid-19 Overwhelm Us in the Months Ahead?

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar20/co … y3-20.html

Either the science is wrong and the complacent will be proven correct, or the science is correct and the complacent will be wrong.

Last edited by clusterF (2020-03-07 12:03:13)

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#43 2020-03-07 13:57:02

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

^It is always funny to me how people will gladly resort to and believe and cite certain blog, than read and cite true scientific source. With one important addition: scientific source will not uncritically draw conclusions, while blogger as a rule will. Also, what people not accustomed to scientific texts are often not aware that what is written in the text, that's it, nothing less, and most importantly: nothing more.

This is nice example: for example, both sources suggest

Data suggests between 2% and 3.4% of all Covid-19 cases end in death

which is simple dividing reported number of deaths by reported total number of infected. (what is written in text)

The problem with above numbers are that 'reported total number of infected' might be severely wrong, by order(s) of magnitude. (The "number of deaths" is probably also wrong - too small, but it is not expected to be larger - lets say - than twice that number.) For example, somewhere I have read that few people were detected which were Covid-19 positive, while not ill at all.

The point is that at this moment, there is not enough reliable data to have a good estimate of mortality rate; it might be far less. (nothing more) (Also, other medical relevant data are not fully known ...)

Therefore, this blog is purely a speculation ... I don't deny the blogger's right to write its opinion, and people cite this blog. I get pissed off by considering the blogger's opinion as a reliable one, and citing its conclusions as a serious source.

Also: I don't argue about problem this virus has imparted on economy, and other possible problems. So far, in Europe, organized trips to other places get cancelled, for example ... and more reduction of normal population activities will probably ensue. But to be afraid of mortality rate is - at this moment of time - premature.

(Note: do not cite my post as a reliable source for Covid-19 virus; I'm not a medical scientist [I am different kind of scientist], and my opinion is not based on sound scientific research.)


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#44 2020-03-07 14:18:09

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

^ cite your sources imbecil. I just posted a blog of an author who is a bit eclectic but a well learned person.

https://www.amazon.com/Charles-Hugh-Smith/e/B001K8B05U

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#45 2020-03-07 14:25:48

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

^Guilty as charged  ... The source is WHO www.who.int (I have read most of it ...) Other is mostly my ((un)educated?) opinion, backed up by scientific logic.

Last edited by iMBeCil (2020-03-07 14:27:30)


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#46 2020-03-07 14:32:41

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

iMBeCil wrote:

^Guilty as charged  ... The source is WHO www.who.int (I have read most of it ...) Other is mostly my ((un)educated?) opinion, backed up by scientific logic.

To the scientific and math presented in the blog. Interestingly the math involved in the blog represented the uptick in deaths considering the current spread compared to influenza and hepatitis as an example/ He also cites valid scientific and medical sources inside the blog post.

Last edited by clusterF (2020-03-07 14:38:09)

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#47 2020-03-07 15:12:21

twoion
ほやほや
Registered: 2015-08-10
Posts: 2,780

Re: covid-19 virus


Per aspera ad astra.

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#48 2020-03-07 15:23:53

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

^The point is that gathered data has to be interpreted scientifically and logically and intelligently sound. A nice example is graph showing The Lack of Pirates Is Causing Global Warming. It is apparently absurd conclusion despite reliable numbers, but the point is that one has to follow same thinking/analyzing process for less, i.e. all, apparent cases. This is called scientific reasoning.

(Lots of funny correlations - I particularly like how number of people who drowned by falling into a pool correlates with films Nicolas Cage appeared in glasses big_smile )

Another example I have found is Research Finds Women Who Own Horses Live Longer Than Those Who Don’t. I don't claim the research is flawed, but true scientist would ask him/herself an intelligent question: is it actually the case that women owning horse are rich enough to have better quality health care compared to women not owning a horse? (I don't know the answer for this particular research ...)

This blog by the guy who has nice picture on amazon.com ... as I said, I have nothing against his opinion - he simply assumed something, and drew several logical conclusion. Personally, I think he uses highly unreliable overestimated mortality rate, as they are not available yet (as I explained above). Effectively, he draws conclusion from highly unreliable premise. What bugs me that people cite such blog as something important.

But, that's my opinion, don't get offended, I feel I had to say that.


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#49 2020-03-07 15:36:27

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

There is a source claiming the true mortality rate is around 0.6%. Source: Coronavirus: South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate.

(I have no idea if this is true, I couldn't find this data in scientific publication, nor WHO. It sounds plausible, though, considering how previous numbers, ~3%, were obtained ...)


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

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#50 2020-03-07 15:42:03

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

imbecil, you are making a mockery out of a very serious situation with your absurd correlations in respect to nonsensical scenarios of pirates causing climate change and women who own horses vs longevity. You seem to be a glass totally empty kind of person who interprets data as absolute truth from its inception to its inevitable dissemination. You even said in more coherent terms that the blogger in question was speculating, is science not speculation and theory from various sources and data available? No where in the blog did the author claim he was right or was sure of his prediction from available data.

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