You are not logged in.

#51 2020-03-07 16:35:22

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

clusterF wrote:

imbecil, you are making a mockery out of a very serious situation with your absurd correlations in respect to nonsensical scenarios of pirates causing climate change and women who own horses vs longevity. You seem to be a glass totally empty kind of person who interprets data as absolute truth from its inception to its inevitable dissemination.

Whoah smile
I guess ... thanks.

clusterF wrote:

You even said in more coherent terms that the blogger in question was speculating, is science not speculation and theory from various sources and data available? No where in the blog did the author claim he was right or was sure of his prediction from available data.

No, the science is not ONLY speculation and theory from various sources and data available. And, no the blogger didn't, and I didn't say I have anything against blogger's post ... But, never mind, I think both of us showed where we stand, I'm over and out.

Last edited by iMBeCil (2020-03-07 16:35:52)


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

Offline

#52 2020-03-07 16:41:57

clusterF
Member
Registered: 2019-05-07
Posts: 539

Re: covid-19 virus

^ you presented straw man arguments. No actual real content in your posts, one might call it "shit posting".

Offline

#53 2020-03-07 17:57:49

damo
....moderator....
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 6,268

Re: covid-19 virus

I think you are missing his point, which as I understand it is that it is far too early to draw firm conclusions from the data currently available. There are many absurd conclusions and false causations that can be drawn from incomplete or selective data sets, as he demonstrated. So until several months more have passed it is sensible not to have too strong an opinion, IMO.

clusterF wrote:

... is science not speculation and theory from various sources and data available?..

Yes, but it is subject to review of the quality of the data and the conclusions drawn. Only after rigorous testing does a hypothesis become a theory, in the meantime there are always caveats.

And I would always give more weight to the opinion of an epidemiologist than 'someone on the internet'.


Be Excellent to Each Other...
The Bunsenlabs Lithium Desktop » Here
FORUM RULES and posting guidelines «» Help page for forum post formatting
Artwork on DeviantArt  «» BunsenLabs on DeviantArt

Offline

#54 2020-03-07 18:00:21

damo
....moderator....
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 6,268

Re: covid-19 virus

clusterF wrote:

^ you presented straw man arguments. No actual real content in your posts, one might call it "shit posting".

Please exercise respectful disagreement. @iMBeCil has been very reasoned and reasonable I think.


Be Excellent to Each Other...
The Bunsenlabs Lithium Desktop » Here
FORUM RULES and posting guidelines «» Help page for forum post formatting
Artwork on DeviantArt  «» BunsenLabs on DeviantArt

Offline

#55 2020-03-07 18:20:31

glittersloth
...village idiot
Registered: 2015-09-30
Posts: 1,147

Re: covid-19 virus

damo wrote:

which as I understand it is that it is far too early to draw firm conclusions from the data currently available.

This is the only point funnelhead was trying to make. He meandered a bit by including his fetish for rich horse-ladies, but the basis of his argument was sound enough.

But let's not forget that scientific research is not exempt from media/marketing spin. It's often the case where someone will use a single study by one scientist to sell an idea, conveniently forgetting to mention the ninety-nine other scientists that denounced the theory. I'm pretty sure someone's using it right now trying to market a quack brand of hand sanitizer made from that Goop lady's piss.

Offline

#56 2020-03-08 11:26:08

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

^ & ^^^ Yeah, that's more-less what I had in mind. (So, the language is - the English being not my mother language - not the problem ...). Thanks for pointing it out in properly formed sentence  angel


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

Offline

#57 2020-03-08 20:04:02

twoion
ほやほや
Registered: 2015-08-10
Posts: 2,938

Re: covid-19 virus

3B1B has made a math video on pandemic growth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg which is relevant.


Per aspera ad astra.

Offline

#58 2020-03-08 21:09:34

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

^Excellent video, thanks. Nicely shows how little we can predict with small errors in starting assumptions. I particularly like how he incorporated the sentence at the end: "The only thing to fear is the lack of fear itself."

(I already 'stumbled' across 3B1B before, I show some of his videos to students, great teaching material. Another one which is also good, and is physics oriented is Veritasium; for example Bullet Block Experiment, or Anti-Gravity Wheel?.)

Last edited by iMBeCil (2020-03-08 21:09:48)


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

Offline

#59 2020-03-10 15:49:35

twoion
ほやほや
Registered: 2015-08-10
Posts: 2,938

Re: covid-19 virus

Just saying, whatever China did for Corona containment wasn't the worst possible response, it was the best possible response considering what they had to deal with (perhaps Taiwan did better).

https://twitter.com/mattmoorek/status/1 … 3081673730

This is the situation everywhere in Germany. Typical for the current level of official messaging on the topic. Nobody takes it serious, there are zero allocated resources, business as usual, even with the Italian situation next door. And this is exactly why Europe is going to get screwed. Just sit back and watch.


Per aspera ad astra.

Offline

#60 2020-03-10 16:43:12

damo
....moderator....
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 6,268

Re: covid-19 virus

I have a feeling that it could be a "good" thing, as long as individual tragedies are put to one side:

  • New stringent attitudes to hygiene everywhere.

  • Therefore less infection, including fewer serious cases of 'flu.

  • So the death-rate is likely to be lower overall.

  • Lower output, fewer flights, less local travel, therefore less pollution.

  • Could be a big wake-up call to the world in general to do something sensible about the planet.

  • The Donald finally listens to the experts EDIT: not very likely.


Be Excellent to Each Other...
The Bunsenlabs Lithium Desktop » Here
FORUM RULES and posting guidelines «» Help page for forum post formatting
Artwork on DeviantArt  «» BunsenLabs on DeviantArt

Offline

#61 2020-03-10 18:02:24

Sector11
Conky 1.9er Mod Squid
From: Upstairs
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 6,397

Re: covid-19 virus

No twitter on my desktop, cannot see.

But I get the drift of what you said.


The sun will never set if you keep walking towards it. - my son
Being positive doesn't understand physics.
_______________________________
Debian 10 Buster = SharpBang ♯!

Offline

#62 2020-03-10 18:09:17

Sector11
Conky 1.9er Mod Squid
From: Upstairs
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 6,397

Re: covid-19 virus

damo wrote:

I have a feeling that it could be a "good" thing, as long as individual tragedies are put to one side:

  • New stringent attitudes to hygiene everywhere.

  • Therefore less infection, including fewer serious cases of 'flu.

  • So the death-rate is likely to be lower overall.

  • Lower output, fewer flights, less local travel, therefore less pollution.

  • Could be a big wake-up call to the world in general to do something sensible about the planet.

  • The Donald finally listens to the experts EDIT: not very likely.

In view of what twoion just posted .... maybe not.

Point #4 should be a MUST but money rules.
I'm hoping your 5th point gets a huge bump!
- But like you said about Trump: not very likely, $$ rules which could destroy #4 as well.


The sun will never set if you keep walking towards it. - my son
Being positive doesn't understand physics.
_______________________________
Debian 10 Buster = SharpBang ♯!

Offline

#63 2020-03-10 18:25:18

unklar
Member
Registered: 2015-10-31
Posts: 1,252

Re: covid-19 virus

twoion wrote:

This is the situation everywhere in Germany. Typical for the current level of official messaging on the topic. Nobody takes it serious, there are zero allocated resources, business as usual, even with the Italian situation next door. And this is exactly why Europe is going to get screwed. Just sit back and watch.

Right.
Once again, the Germans can sit out the already existing (and hidden) recession. Not their own incompetence, but the virus is to blame.
"Mutti" has been watching for a long time and doesn't shake hands anymore...

Offline

#64 2020-03-10 19:21:45

glittersloth
...village idiot
Registered: 2015-09-30
Posts: 1,147

Re: covid-19 virus

What I find stupid is the panic buying. Do all the people hoarding hand sanitizer and soap not realize that the only way to slow the spread is for everyone else to have access to these as well? What good will it do if you're the only one with sparkly hands in your designated-as-cluster apartment building?! Oh right, you'll do a Trump and build a wall with all that toilet paper you've been hoarding. How genial...

Edit:
At least gas is cheaper now, thanks to the Russians and Saudis. More molotov cocktails to go round for when the rioting starts.

Last edited by glittersloth (2020-03-10 19:26:11)

Offline

#65 2020-03-10 22:27:23

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

Personally, I think when in certain area covid virus patient is discovered, it is already too late to take any action with idea of restricting spread of disease ... Considering people mobility in modern society, plenty of people are already in various stages of disease ...

And it is nobody's fault: for majority of people the symptoms are similar to a 'normal' flu ... Myself, if I can function reasonably well, I don't mind sitting at my working space, pretending to do my job (actually: do low level stuff like cleaning browser history pr0n links, removing similar leftovers saved on disk, a few 'apt updates' ... and so on, and of course, contemplating writing a will, in case the flu gets fatal  big_smile )

Seriously though, I have read a few opinions about society response: one guy argues that depending on particular country state - meaning how accessible and good and organized is health care - some countries will suffer more and some less. As an example he mention China (no free health care) and Italy (corruption and dubiously organized health care system) as a 'bad' examples, and South Korea as a 'good' example'. In this sense Germany might be on the 'good' side, meaning there will be a lot of cases, but due to good country health care (and overall well organized public services) there will be not so much mortality.

Anyway, good luck twoion wink
I'm not that far from you; here we are already canceling various event country-wise, and everybody coming from Italy is forced into 14-days quarantine. Also, people feeling flu symptoms are encouraged to stay in 'self-isolation' at home for 14 days  hmm Somehow, I think in few days (a week max?) we can expect canceling schools and universities.

At the end, if I survive covid-19 virus, I would be much more concerned with ruined economy, in my country (we depend on tourism), and in entire world ... I just hope there will be no wars over the virus.

Glitter ... I can somehow understand buying soap, but what baffles me is people buying enormous quantities of toilet paper ...

EDIT: actually, considering average age of people here, good luck to all of you! I hope I'll see you all after this cr*p finishes. As they say in my country: "he who survives will tell tales"  cool

Last edited by iMBeCil (2020-03-10 22:30:15)


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

Offline

#66 2020-03-10 23:00:43

Sector11
Conky 1.9er Mod Squid
From: Upstairs
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 6,397

Re: covid-19 virus

iMBeCil wrote:

Glitter ... I can somehow understand buying soap, but what baffles me is people buying enormous quantities of toilet paper ...

EDIT: actually, considering average age of people here, good luck to all of you! I hope I'll see you all after this cr*p finishes. As they say in my country: "he who survives will tell tales"  cool

TP can double as tissue paper.

I'll be here. I have NO intention of going just yet.


The sun will never set if you keep walking towards it. - my son
Being positive doesn't understand physics.
_______________________________
Debian 10 Buster = SharpBang ♯!

Offline

#67 2020-03-12 18:33:58

twoion
ほやほや
Registered: 2015-08-10
Posts: 2,938

Re: covid-19 virus

Finally people start to implement measures. It took some time to wear off the stupid. Guess the message only arrived when politicians themselves got the Corona (quite a few as of now).

My company today (after I already was WFH since Monday last week) sent all employees home with the directive to only work from home till at least May (1000s of people). Luckily, our company is in a sector that won't be impacted by this situation very much if at all and we're practically all intellctual workers that can shift without productivity loss to working from home. My recommendation is to stay employed and buy the dip (which might last an awfully long time). I started shifting my assets into the stock market in 2017 and today's prices, especially in indices, are those from 2017…VWRL is in the low 60s now; if it dips into the 50s im buying big.

Universities almost universally have cancelled exams till at least the end of April.

The ever unchanging law of e^x is gonna get Europe good. This is what you get when people elect theatre studies majors and unable apparatchik into government. They only do well as long as things accidentally go well.

Still states like Slovakia are the ones to handle this best: shut traffic out and quarantine. Germany still refuses to acknowledge the gravity of the situation.


Per aspera ad astra.

Offline

#68 2020-03-12 19:57:07

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

^As usual, I think you are too harsh ... although I agree about

twoion wrote:

This is what you get when people elect theatre studies majors and unable apparatchik into government. They only do well as long as things accidentally go well.

big_smile

Here is one scientific view and another one (originally written in Croatian, for Croatian web portal), written for non-expert (but written for people with brain), from an epidemiologist. (Never mind the guy is from Croatia; he has respectable international scientific career.)

It is really full of information, and with cold scientific reasoning. I find it an excellent (albeit, long) read.

In a nutshell:
- covid-19 became internationally pandemic, and there were no chances it could be contained in single (small) area
- most of the humanity will get into contact of covid-19
- the real mortality rate seems to be lower than 1%, but it is still not known
- it is important to do a good damage control: to slow down spread of the disease, to allow health care to prepare; otherwise, if spread is too fast, there will be more fatalities, as health care capacities are limited
- people with compromised immunity are in the most trouble; but this is true for any flu
- media didn't help
That's what I gather from all information I read.

BTW, in Croatia, today, we detected 25th person with covid-19 disease, at least that's what media claims. I think many more people are actually ill, but they are not yet tested, and/or they didn't develop symptoms. I expect exponential increase in several few weeks. Soon we will be like Italy. And Slovakia will also became like Italy, I'm almost sure of this - it is virtually impossible to be unaffected with today's people mobility.


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

Offline

#69 2020-03-12 20:05:40

twoion
ほやほや
Registered: 2015-08-10
Posts: 2,938

Re: covid-19 virus

iMBeCil wrote:

BTW, in Croatia, today, we detected 25th person with covid-19 disease, at least that's what media claims. I think many more people are actually ill, but they are not yet tested, and/or they didn't develop symptoms. I expect exponential increase in several few weeks. Soon we will be like Italy. And Slovakia will also became like Italy, I'm almost sure of this - it is virtually impossible to be unaffected with today's people mobility.

"No tests no corona no problem"


Per aspera ad astra.

Offline

#70 2020-03-12 20:16:05

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

twoion wrote:
iMBeCil wrote:

BTW, in Croatia, today, we detected 25th person with covid-19 disease, at least that's what media claims. I think many more people are actually ill, but they are not yet tested, and/or they didn't develop symptoms. I expect exponential increase in several few weeks. Soon we will be like Italy. And Slovakia will also became like Italy, I'm almost sure of this - it is virtually impossible to be unaffected with today's people mobility.

"No tests no corona no problem"

Exactly smile

But, honestly, now, what is really the gain in testing people to covid-19 (I'm talking about people with normal (as in non-fatal), mild or no symptoms)? Now, it would have only academic value, and as I understand those test are not really cheap. (And we are poor country.)

Much better activity would be thinking way ahead in time, to minimize damage to the overall economy. I am seriously afraid that next month, or one after that, I won't get my paycheck from University (which in turn is entirely government funded). And other people, too ...


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

Offline

#71 2020-03-12 20:38:17

Martin
Member
From: Stockholm, Sweden
Registered: 2015-10-01
Posts: 462
Website

Re: covid-19 virus

iMBeCil wrote:

^Excellent video, thanks.

+1

/Martin


"Problems worthy of attack
prove their worth by hitting back."
Piet Hein

Offline

#72 2020-03-13 03:05:02

johnraff
nullglob
From: Nagoya, Japan
Registered: 2015-09-09
Posts: 7,303
Website

Re: covid-19 virus

iMBeCil wrote:

But, honestly, now, what is really the gain in testing people to covid-19 (I'm talking about people with normal (as in non-fatal), mild or no symptoms)?

Surely it's about slowing proliferation? Even people with few or no symptoms can infect others, I understand. People with the virus can at least avoid going out...

The more we (humanity) can slow down the spread, the better the chance of developing a vaccine in time to bring it to a halt.


...elevator in the Brain Hotel, broken down but just as well...
( a boring Japan blog (currently paused), idle Twitterings and GitStuff )

Introduction to the Bunsenlabs Lithium Desktop

Offline

#73 2020-03-13 03:10:57

Sector11
Conky 1.9er Mod Squid
From: Upstairs
Registered: 2015-08-20
Posts: 6,397

Re: covid-19 virus

For those interested:

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases

I like the green numbers.


The sun will never set if you keep walking towards it. - my son
Being positive doesn't understand physics.
_______________________________
Debian 10 Buster = SharpBang ♯!

Offline

#74 2020-03-13 07:06:08

ohnonot
...again
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 4,880
Website

Re: covid-19 virus

I feel I am smack down the middle between those who want to prevent panic from spreading and those who want to prevent the disease from spreading.
I think it's clear that neither should be underestimated.

Most confusingly, there seems to be almost no information about the disease itself; how to properly recognize symptoms, how to treat oneself... I suspect it is because it's a new disease and the world simply does not know yet.
But I would prefer that as an honest answer.
Instead, I am being told that "unless I have been in contact with someone from a risk area or have high fever, everything's fine". But we all know that some people infected show only very mild symptoms!
And loads of secondary & tertiary news (economical impact etc.).
Ah.
At least this country's government is waking up, there's been some sort of announcement yesterday. Which I missed because I listen to international news all the time - changing that now...
... Among other things they give phony reasons (*) why it makes sense to keep schools and kindergartens open, when everybody knows what the real reason is: total breakdown when everybody has to stay at home because of their kids.

(*) "those aren't large gatherings because the kids are in their classrooms"


BL quote proposals to this thread please.
how to ask smart questions | my repos / my repos | my blog
---
Thank you for posting direct image links!

Offline

#75 2020-03-13 08:30:46

iMBeCil
WAAAT?
From: Edrychwch o'ch cwmpas
Registered: 2015-09-29
Posts: 767

Re: covid-19 virus

Sector11 wrote:

Very nice and informative page, thanks Sector for the link.


Postpone all your duties; if you die, you won't have to do them ..

Offline

Board footer

Powered by FluxBB